Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Get a Free Solar Power System on Your Commercial Building


If you own a commercial building, you can get a solar power system essentially free.  Here’s how we did it.

First you have to decide how large of a system to buy (how many panels).  To optimize the financial yield of our system, we purchased an array that maximized the southern roof exposure of our building.  This array will produce about 70% of the electricity we use annually (our building is located in Appleton, Wisconsin).  This is about ideal, because as you attempt to reach 100% solar, the marginal return on the incremental investment in panels will diminish.  In the months we over produce (make more energy than we use), WE Energies pays us a wholesale price for the overproduction.  The wholesale price is $.04/kwh, compared to the $.13/kwh we effectively get by offsetting the energy we use in a month.  Keeping our investment to a 70% system minimizes the number of months we overproduce, and thereby maximizes the rate of return on our investment.

Our array cost about $58,000.  We paid $18,000 in cash, and borrowed $40,000 from Fox Communities Credit Union (on an equipment loan).  Because we own the system, we qualify for the 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which equals $17,400.  This essentially pays us back our down payment.  We will also qualify for some state credits, which we will use to pay down our loan.

Our system will save us about $550 per month on average, and our loan payment (10 year amortization) is only $420 per month.  So there you have it: zero down and positive cash flow every year.  That’s better than free.  When the system is paid off, it should save around $7,000 per year, and the system has an expected useful life of 25 years.

Act fast!  - the 30% federal tax credit available in 2019 drops to 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and 10% in 2022.  Thank you Appleton Solar (www.appleton-solar.com) and WE Energies for making this possible.

Brian Murray
Murray & Frank Properties, LLC


Sunday, June 16, 2019

Why the Big Bang Theory… Sucks.


Ockham’s Razor states “entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily,” meaning that when you are presented with competing hypothesis making the same predictions, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.

ORIGINS OF THE BIG BANG THEORY

In 1929 Edwin Hubble published a paper documenting the red-shift observations of galaxies at various distances, and the velocities of motion thereby implied.  These calculations were seen as a confirmation of a theory proposed in 1927 by Georges Lamaitre that the universe was expanding outward; a theory that later came to be known as the ‘Big Bang Theory’ (BBT).

For hundreds of years following the Renaissance Period, science and religion had been in a philosophical contest covering topics such as: the origins of humanity, evolution, the Earth as a sphere, geo-centricity, and much more.  Year after year, new scientific observations and theories clawed away at religious fables.  Even today, much of the scientific community feels engaged in a battle with religion for the public acceptance of scientific theory over religious stories.  Many scientists feel it is their mission to lead people out of the ignorant darkness of religion and myth and into the enlightened truth of science. 

For hundreds of years, the scientific community (‘science’) felt at a disadvantage because religion had a story for the origin of the universe while science had none.  The need to counter religious origin stories contributed to the broad acceptance of BBT, and abandoning BBT would leave science with no origin story to fall back on. 

Describing the universe as infinitely present wasn’t enough.  Humanity has difficulty resting on infinite concepts.  Almost everything in human experience has a beginning and an end.  We are constantly evaluating everything from the confines of bookends.  Discussions of the universe that do not include an origin story are instinctively unsatisfying, and are easily passed over by other ‘book-ended’ explanations regardless of their improbability.

PROBLEMS

One of BBT’s problems was immediately apparent: the dispersion of matter in the observable universe does not resemble the aftermath of an explosion in any way.  Explosions typically result in an area devoid of matter near or around the center, and a bell curve distribution of matter at a distance from the center in all directions (depending on gravitational circumstances).  However, matter in the observed universe is evenly distributed.

This discrepancy spawned a corollary theory called Inflation, which postulates that, because all matter in the universe was compressed, all space was compressed with it.  When matter exploded outward, space opened up at an equal pace, causing an even distribution of matter.

More recent observations of red shift by the Hubble Space Telescope find the red shift is higher than anticipated for distant galaxies, leading scientists to conclude that galaxies are not slowing down as expected, but are accelerating away.  Red shift observations of galactic rotation also imply rotational speeds that exceed expectations based on gravitational models.

These two observations (and the velocities attributed to them) have spawned two more placeholder theories necessary to maintain BBT: ‘Dark Energy’ and ‘Dark Matter.’  Dark Energy Theory postulates that there is approximately five times more energy present in the universe - of unknown origin and type - causing the accelerating expansion of the universe.  Dark Matter Theory postulates that the universe contains approximately five times more matter than we can observe; the amount necessary to cause the galactic rotation approximated using red shift data to work with our current gravitational models.

Finally, if the red shift observations of galaxies increase proportionally (and increasingly) with their perceived distance from Earth, then the Earth is necessarily at or near the center of the universe.  Galileo and Copernicus must be turning in their graves!  The improbability of our planet or galaxy residing at the effective center of the universe, and therefore its center of origin, is so improbable that religious fables become comparatively reasonable.  This point is rarely mentioned in contemporary discussions of BBT, and is certainly the strongest argument against it.

Some of BBT’s defenders (including Stephen Hawking) have argued that the universe does not require a center for expansion, stating that it is expanding in all directions.  The popular comparison is to visualize the universe on a two-dimensional plane on the surface of a balloon.  As the balloon inflates, objects on the surface are retreating from every point uniformly.  But therein lies the problem; uniformity.  Red shift observations imply accelerating velocity that coincides with the galaxy’s distance from Earth.  The farther away it is in any direction, the higher is its velocity.  This is impossibly incongruous with the ‘expanding in all directions’ argument. 

Let’s consider a basic example.  Let A, B, and C represent three points in space in a straight line.  B is directly between A and C, and is equidistant from each.

A  --------------------  B  --------------------  C

The following variables represent the velocities between the various points.

a            A   -   C                             d            C   -   A
b            A   -   B                             e            C   -   B
c            B   -   C                              f            B   -   A

Rates a, b, and c are the velocities measured (or, inferred by the red shift data) by an observer on point A.  Rates d, e, and f are the velocities measured by an observer on point C.

According to the theory of accelerating expansion, an observer on A would find velocity ‘a’ faster than velocity b (a > b), which necessarily requires that velocity c is greater than b (c > b).  However, according to the theory of universal expansion, the observer on C should observe that d > e, and therefore f > e.  To the observer on A, B and C are moving faster apart than A and B, and to the observer on C it is the opposite.  Both cannot be true in a physical sense.  At this point someone will attempt to employ a relativist explanation, however those explanations are best attributed to gravitational effects and are improper here because this example is making no consideration for mass. 

If the universe is expanding in all directions, any break from uniform velocity is impossible.  Any acceleration or deceleration in the rate of expansion requires a center.  Therefore, accepting the theory of non-centered expansion negates the theory of accelerating expansion.  Given that the red shift data increases with the galaxy’s distance, conceding the theory of acceleration (in order to maintain non-centric expansion) weakens the entire expansion conclusion significantly because it has become incongruous with the red shift data.  It is more probable there is an unexplained gravitational/spacetime effect causing the red shift observations.

When evaluating any theory, we must consider the probability of its accuracy.  In order to accept BBT, we must accept the theory of inflation, and that the universe contains five times more energy and matter than we can observe or explain, and that we are at the center of this expansion.  The combined probability of these theories is immeasurably low, yet science prefers them to no theory; refusing to cede any territory to religion.  Science may gain credibility with the lay person by admitting what cannot currently be explained, rather than persist with theories that are highly improbable.  Science has historically been the voice of reason, leading people away from religious fables.  Perhaps science has overreached what it can explain at this point, and has effectively created new fables to battle the old ones.

Sustaining BBT requires a minefield of highly improbable corollary assumptions, all of which can vanish with the acknowledgement that, for a reason to date unexplained, the light gathered from distant galaxies is increasingly red shifted.  There is no necessity to attribute the red shift to motion.  By introducing this one undefined variable, the universe suddenly becomes a much simpler place.  Friar William of Ockham would agree.


Friday, April 19, 2019

Does Electron Similarity Prove the Universe is a Simulation?

Every electron measured has the same mass, charge, and rotation.  Scientists have postulated causes for this sameness, but to date it remains unexplained.

Many scientists have speculated that our universe is a simulation.  Without a major interruption in technological progress, within the next 100 years (a very short time in comparison to the span of human existence) we will have developed computers capable of generating an entire universe down to every atom.

Depending on the computational capacity required, this could be done millions of times at the behest of humans or AI.  Following this logic, it is therefore more probable that we are living in a simulation than the 'original' universe.

My initial problem with this theory was basic.  Why?  Why would a human or an AI devote tremendous computational resources to generating these massive simulations?  Our best virtual reality efforts today are generated for the entertainment of organic (we think) humans.  It seems unlikely that VR's this intense would be generated for the entertainment of a human because they would necessarily have to be run at super fast speeds to produce anything usable.  Imagining a benefit for an AI was even harder for me to conceive.

The answer came to me in the course of developing software for my small business.  For the purposes of business valuation, we needed to develop business models from past data that could accurately predict future results, and the probabilities of various outcomes.  Modeling was the answer.

An AI or a human scientist could use sophisticated models of the universe to unlock many of the universe's secrets.  Gravitational behavior, the characteristics of light, the Big Bang, quantum physics - all could be rigorously tested with super sophisticated modeling.  Each model of the universe would start with a small difference.  As the time clock ran (at super fast speed) the model's outcomes would be compared to actual data.  This process would continue until perfect models of the universe where created.

If our universe is a simulation, then apparently this model is using the same block of code for the generation of every electron.  Perhaps randomizing the characteristics of electrons was an unnecessary use of computational capacity (understandable considering there are possibly 10 to the 80th power electrons in the universe).  Perhaps the model only works if all electrons are the same.

In any case, the perfect similarity of every electron in the universe could be evidence that the universe is, in fact, a simulation.