Showing posts with label space. Show all posts
Showing posts with label space. Show all posts

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Why the Big Bang Theory… Sucks.


Ockham’s Razor states “entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily,” meaning that when you are presented with competing hypothesis making the same predictions, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.

ORIGINS OF THE BIG BANG THEORY

In 1929 Edwin Hubble published a paper documenting the red-shift observations of galaxies at various distances, and the velocities of motion thereby implied.  These calculations were seen as a confirmation of a theory proposed in 1927 by Georges Lamaitre that the universe was expanding outward; a theory that later came to be known as the ‘Big Bang Theory’ (BBT).

For hundreds of years following the Renaissance Period, science and religion had been in a philosophical contest covering topics such as: the origins of humanity, evolution, the Earth as a sphere, geo-centricity, and much more.  Year after year, new scientific observations and theories clawed away at religious fables.  Even today, much of the scientific community feels engaged in a battle with religion for the public acceptance of scientific theory over religious stories.  Many scientists feel it is their mission to lead people out of the ignorant darkness of religion and myth and into the enlightened truth of science. 

For hundreds of years, the scientific community (‘science’) felt at a disadvantage because religion had a story for the origin of the universe while science had none.  The need to counter religious origin stories contributed to the broad acceptance of BBT, and abandoning BBT would leave science with no origin story to fall back on. 

Describing the universe as infinitely present wasn’t enough.  Humanity has difficulty resting on infinite concepts.  Almost everything in human experience has a beginning and an end.  We are constantly evaluating everything from the confines of bookends.  Discussions of the universe that do not include an origin story are instinctively unsatisfying, and are easily passed over by other ‘book-ended’ explanations regardless of their improbability.

PROBLEMS

One of BBT’s problems was immediately apparent: the dispersion of matter in the observable universe does not resemble the aftermath of an explosion in any way.  Explosions typically result in an area devoid of matter near or around the center, and a bell curve distribution of matter at a distance from the center in all directions (depending on gravitational circumstances).  However, matter in the observed universe is evenly distributed.

This discrepancy spawned a corollary theory called Inflation, which postulates that, because all matter in the universe was compressed, all space was compressed with it.  When matter exploded outward, space opened up at an equal pace, causing an even distribution of matter.

More recent observations of red shift by the Hubble Space Telescope find the red shift is higher than anticipated for distant galaxies, leading scientists to conclude that galaxies are not slowing down as expected, but are accelerating away.  Red shift observations of galactic rotation also imply rotational speeds that exceed expectations based on gravitational models.

These two observations (and the velocities attributed to them) have spawned two more placeholder theories necessary to maintain BBT: ‘Dark Energy’ and ‘Dark Matter.’  Dark Energy Theory postulates that there is approximately five times more energy present in the universe - of unknown origin and type - causing the accelerating expansion of the universe.  Dark Matter Theory postulates that the universe contains approximately five times more matter than we can observe; the amount necessary to cause the galactic rotation approximated using red shift data to work with our current gravitational models.

Finally, if the red shift observations of galaxies increase proportionally (and increasingly) with their perceived distance from Earth, then the Earth is necessarily at or near the center of the universe.  Galileo and Copernicus must be turning in their graves!  The improbability of our planet or galaxy residing at the effective center of the universe, and therefore its center of origin, is so improbable that religious fables become comparatively reasonable.  This point is rarely mentioned in contemporary discussions of BBT, and is certainly the strongest argument against it.

Some of BBT’s defenders (including Stephen Hawking) have argued that the universe does not require a center for expansion, stating that it is expanding in all directions.  The popular comparison is to visualize the universe on a two-dimensional plane on the surface of a balloon.  As the balloon inflates, objects on the surface are retreating from every point uniformly.  But therein lies the problem; uniformity.  Red shift observations imply accelerating velocity that coincides with the galaxy’s distance from Earth.  The farther away it is in any direction, the higher is its velocity.  This is impossibly incongruous with the ‘expanding in all directions’ argument. 

Let’s consider a basic example.  Let A, B, and C represent three points in space in a straight line.  B is directly between A and C, and is equidistant from each.

A  --------------------  B  --------------------  C

The following variables represent the velocities between the various points.

a            A   -   C                             d            C   -   A
b            A   -   B                             e            C   -   B
c            B   -   C                              f            B   -   A

Rates a, b, and c are the velocities measured (or, inferred by the red shift data) by an observer on point A.  Rates d, e, and f are the velocities measured by an observer on point C.

According to the theory of accelerating expansion, an observer on A would find velocity ‘a’ faster than velocity b (a > b), which necessarily requires that velocity c is greater than b (c > b).  However, according to the theory of universal expansion, the observer on C should observe that d > e, and therefore f > e.  To the observer on A, B and C are moving faster apart than A and B, and to the observer on C it is the opposite.  Both cannot be true in a physical sense.  At this point someone will attempt to employ a relativist explanation, however those explanations are best attributed to gravitational effects and are improper here because this example is making no consideration for mass. 

If the universe is expanding in all directions, any break from uniform velocity is impossible.  Any acceleration or deceleration in the rate of expansion requires a center.  Therefore, accepting the theory of non-centered expansion negates the theory of accelerating expansion.  Given that the red shift data increases with the galaxy’s distance, conceding the theory of acceleration (in order to maintain non-centric expansion) weakens the entire expansion conclusion significantly because it has become incongruous with the red shift data.  It is more probable there is an unexplained gravitational/spacetime effect causing the red shift observations.

When evaluating any theory, we must consider the probability of its accuracy.  In order to accept BBT, we must accept the theory of inflation, and that the universe contains five times more energy and matter than we can observe or explain, and that we are at the center of this expansion.  The combined probability of these theories is immeasurably low, yet science prefers them to no theory; refusing to cede any territory to religion.  Science may gain credibility with the lay person by admitting what cannot currently be explained, rather than persist with theories that are highly improbable.  Science has historically been the voice of reason, leading people away from religious fables.  Perhaps science has overreached what it can explain at this point, and has effectively created new fables to battle the old ones.

Sustaining BBT requires a minefield of highly improbable corollary assumptions, all of which can vanish with the acknowledgement that, for a reason to date unexplained, the light gathered from distant galaxies is increasingly red shifted.  There is no necessity to attribute the red shift to motion.  By introducing this one undefined variable, the universe suddenly becomes a much simpler place.  Friar William of Ockham would agree.


Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Extraterrestrial Evolution

What can the Earth’s history tell us about the probability of life on other planets?

Sorry, this is not an article about finding alien fossils next to dinosaurs, or alien portals hidden within the great pyramids of Egypt.  However there are conclusions we can draw from Earth’s history that may help us estimate the probability of life existing on similar, nearby (relatively) planets. 

[Note: In the course of this short piece I will reference a variety of statistics, all of which will have been severely rounded for the sake of keeping the math simple.  Further, rounding the calculations is necessary to remove the implications of accuracy that more precise figures might suggest.]

Let’s start at the beginning – the beginning of Earth anyway.  That was around 4.3 billion years ago.  Scientists tell us that life made its first appearance on earth around 4 billion years ago, and, in spite of seven mass extinctions, life on Earth has been constant since it began.  Life has been constant on Earth for the entire time Earth had conditions to support life (assuming those first 300 million years where ‘formative,’ where Earth’s conditions were inhospitable to life.) 

Life is not rare.  It is the conditions necessary to sustain life that are rare.  If the conditions necessary for life are present, then life will be present.  Therefore we will assume a 100% probability that if a planet contains the conditions necessary for life, then life will be present.

What about ‘intelligent’ life?  Let’s define intelligent life as Australopithecus (an early humanoid capable of using tools), or ‘Lucy’ as one such skeleton is known.  Lucy appeared around 4 million years ago.  Using Earth as our guide, the probability of finding intelligent life on a planet with the conditions necessary for life, is 4,000,000 / 4,000,000,000, or approximately 1/1,000.  We can roughly estimate that one out of a thousand planets that contain life will contain intelligent life (assuming evolution would progress at roughly the same pace, and the average number of extinctions would be similar).

What about modern civilizations?  If we define modern civilizations as the beginning of the Bronze Age, then civilizations began on Earth around 4,000 years ago.  The probability that a planet containing the conditions necessary for life will have civilizations is approximately 4,000 / 4,000,000,000, or one in one million.  This sounds low, but there are trillions (more than that, actually) of stars and planets to select from, therefore there are probably thousands of civilizations within our galaxy.  Unfortunately most of these are so far away that communication with these planets using light would take longer than the expected lifetime of our civilization.


What about the closest stars?  If we consider 50 light years as a reasonable communication window, we have found approximately 100 stars similar to our sun within range of Earth.  If these stars have on average one planet with the conditions necessary for life, then the probability of a civilization existing within 50 light years of Earth is approximately 100 / 1,000,000, or one in ten thousand.

The idea that life on a distant planet would evolve in a manner similar to Earth is bound to make some people scoff.  They will argue that our evolutionary path has been influenced by a variety of random occurrences, therefore the progress on another planet will probably be significantly different.  It’s true that I’m using earth as both the median and mean of a group with a sample size of one.  Based on this, I am assuming that the characteristics of Earth represent the most probable outcome on the bell curve of possible variants.

For example, I’m assuming a planet similarly situated as Earth (nature of its star, distance from its star, etc.) would be predisposed to look like Earth in many respects (size, temperature, atmosphere) because these attributes are partially derived from its situation.  Certainly if we collected data on 100 planets all orbiting similar stars at a similar distance there would be variations in the results, however it is my contention that Earth’s characteristics are at the mean, first because it is the most probable answer, and second because we have no reason to believe otherwise (that Earth is an outlier).

If the local star is similar to our sun in size, type, and age, then the distribution of planets will also be similar, with its own ‘goldilocks zone’ ideal for sustaining life.  Further, the elemental make-up of Earth is not unusual; our planet is composed of the most popular elements in the universe and in roughly equal portions.  Therefore the composition of the typical planet in Earth’s size range and solar situation would be similar.  Each planet would probably have tectonic plates, volcanic activity, mountains, water, and atmosphere.  Each planet will probably develop vegetation of all types, and millions of varieties of species that compete to survive, evolve, and fall extinct.

Consider the impact ‘random’ events have had on the evolution of life on Earth.  The Earth’s planetary history is full of cataclysmic events such as giant asteroid strikes and volcanic eruptions that have shaped its evolutionary path.  However, over the course of 4 billion years, these events are not ‘random’ at all, but regular.  Comets will strike at a given frequency; not with the precision of your Swiss watch certainly but the longer the time horizon becomes, the more predictable the number of cataclysmic events becomes.  The same holds true with volcanoes and resulting temperature swings.  Similarly situated planets will, over a given space of time, will have a similar number of cataclysmic events of various types, all having similar extinction impacts on their various species. 

Two planets 50 light years apart that are similar in size, situation, and age may have very similar evolutionary outcomes.  One planet may develop civilizations at 3 billion years old and another at 4.  It is also probable that the other planets ‘people’ will look very similar to us.  We’re evolution’s best design for this environment, and Mother Nature has had millions of tries to get it right.  If the environment is similar, the creatures inhabiting it will be as well.

I don’t expect they’ll speak English.